SHAPING A POST ISIS MIDDLE EAST

We received the following news from “Global Diplomatic Forum”. The forum is an experts consultation on the scenarios of security questions in the Middle East and North Africa Region.

SYNOPSIS

Despite its biggest breakthrough in 2014, Islamic State (IS) has not continued its territorial expansion, and has even lost parts of its territory in 2015. To its detriment, several alliances have formed against it and it is losing territory gradually during this year. Although these alliances are bound together by the common goal of defeating IS, they do not agree in their visions of post-IS Syria.

As the disagreement within anti-IS alliance shows, defeating IS and bringing peace to the region still has a long way to go, and the Middle East is likely to stay a highly volatile and unstable region through 2016 and beyond the end of IS. Some questions related to post ISIS Middle East include the war in Syria and its underlying regional causes, including a view on the role and future of IS, Kurdish aspirations, the economic arrangement of a petrodollars deprived Middle East; the refugee crisis spanning from Eritrea to Afghanistan and Syria and its global solution.

What strategies could be implemented on disarming, removing from lands taken and, outside murderers, reintegrated?

There will be thousands (of IS fighters) who will be beyond reintegration into civilian life, their only role in the past few years having been warfare, some of it indiscriminate. What special forms of reintegration and monitoring of ISIS fighters, some of them in distant lands will there be? The apparent lack of or weak planning of any post IS interventions has had a major impact on disorder in the region. Additional questions are raised concerning the regional order of the Middle East:

Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations

The Shi’a – Sunni war led by Iran and the Arab States in the regions of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen has led to the whole region to become the battlegrounds for the two sects. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia seem to believe in the military route to win this struggle. Is there potential to have Iran – Saudi around the negotiation table? What arrangement can break a deal for the two sides?

The Kurdish Question

The Kurdish question, is a concept referring to a historical, political, social, cultural and economic problem engulfing Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Each of these countries and each Kurdish community foresee differently the Kurdish question:

Is there a comprehensive arrangement for the Kurdish question in the region? Or should the Kurdish question should be resolved separately in each country?

The Middle East Peace Process

In the absence of any Palestinian – Israeli negotiation for over two years and lack of any resolution’s proposal on the table, the conflict risks to escalate at any time and add to the region’s security disorder.

Can the improved Israeli-Egyptian Security Cooperation provide a boost to the peace process? Can Russia emerge as the new mediator for a new round of negotiations?

The Russian Role in the Region

The Russian military intervention in Syria, and the revival of its relations with the region’s protagonists of Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that Russia aims to play a leading role the events of the region. However, Russia’s vision of the region is unclear. Does the Russian intervention aim to restore order or just to support an ally regime in Syria? Does Russia have the resources to maintain a long term role in the region?

The Middle East Forum will discuss the potential road map to regional security order involving the different actors in the region and a Wide Reconciliation process in the region. The forum is an expert’s consultation on the scenarios of security questions in the Middle East and North Africa Region.

PROGRAMME

6, Mitre Passage, London

9:30 – Registration

Session I

10:00- 11:20

The Potential of regional order and possible scenarios for stability in the region

Speakers

• Post-Isis Middle East: Security, Political and Social Arrangements

• Potential of Iran- Saudi Arabia Deal

11:20-11:40 Refreshment Break

Session II

11:40- 13:00

Managing Transition and Breaking the shackles of the past

• Settling The Kurdish Question (s)

• The Russian Role in the region

• Revival of Middle East Peace Process

13:00 Departure